Example of analysis of an argument essay: score 6
Last updated: 13 Oct 2008
The following is part of a business plan of an investment firm:
"Studies indicate that the average person exercises less as he gets older. At the same time, the number of hours a person spends watching television tends to increase as he ages. Since the percentage of senior citizens in the population will increase over the next two decades, we ought to, therefore, consider selling our shares in Runrite shoes in order to increase our investment in the Worldwide Television Co."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusions.
On the surface it is possible that selling shares in Runrite shoes ("RRS") in order to purchase share in Worldwide Television Co ("WTV") could produce a better investment fot the firm based on the fact that older people exercise less than when they were younger and that television viewing increases as people age. However, for this statement to hold true a number of assumptions would have to be proven.
Firstly, it would be necessary to prove that it is the same person who, as he or she got older, who switches from exercising to watching television. No evidence is given to support this assumption.
Secondly, underlying the statement is the assumption that current or past trends will be repeated in the future. To support the business plan it would be useful to carry out some research amongst middle-aged individuals in an attempt to assess if the same patterns will hold true over the next two decades. If possible, it needs to be determined if people will exercise less in the next twenty years and if so will they instead spend more time watching television.
Thirdly, and maybe most importantly, even if the trend remains the same over the next two decades this does necessarily imply more sales of televisions. Increased sales of televisions would be fundamental in increasing the value of the investment in WTV. It is therefore important to establish if increased television viewing automatically generates new sales. It could be that individuals would just watch their existing television more regularly. Likewise, less exercise might not lead to fewer sales of exercise shoes as individuals may continue to wear such footwear for other activities (including watching televsion).
One piece of information that would allow me to better evaluate the conclusion of the argument would be evidence to suggest that future developments in technology will not phase out television as we currently know it. Within today\'s rapidly changing technical arena it is possible that an alternative activity may replace watching television for aging people or we maybe able to watch television on an alternative appliance.
Overall the argument presented is not solid enough to justify selling shares in RRS to increase investment in WTV. More research into the assumptions behind the statement is required.
Comments
This essay receives a 6.
This is an excellent essay. The author not only demonstrates mastery of the grammatical structure and vocabulary of standard written English, but also gives the critique of the argument a logical organization.
Most importantly, the author identifies several assumptions embedded in the original argument that would have to be proved before we could ever evaluate the argument effectively.
